There has never been a revolution in the middle east that has led to a western style democracy.
We see a revolt and immediately think, okay they are seeking to be free. Well, yes, maybe but not as we know it because as we have seen over the years, it does not lead to this.
It did happen in India. Both India and Pakistan (originally part of British India) have a parliamentary style government.
Israel was created by the UN after World War Two. Yes, the Israeli’s had to immediately defend their independence against Jordan, Syria and Egypt.
But if you look at the core of the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Syria and Egypt, none of them has ever had a democracy. Not ever in their history. Israel has a democracy but it started this way and has remained this way since 1948. The surrounding dictatorships have consistently tried to demolish the Jewish State but have failed consistently. Israel is the best at fighting short quick wars. Weaker when getting drawn into longer conflicts. So far outside of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and the Invasion of Lebanon in 1982, that has been pretty much all it has taken for Israel to survive.
So far at least.
There are levels of freedom in the Middle East and neighboring countries. The map below illustrates this.
So if Mubarak steps down will he be replaced by a democracy?
Possibly however at best, I believe that the transition will look a lot like the Russian Revolution of 1917 where for a time there was a democracy of some kind which was quickly overthrown by the Bolsheviks and a succession of eternal dictatorships. Or so it seemed at the time.
The USA loses if the present regime falls. The Egyptians see the USA as the force that help prop up the present government. So if things fall, then what moves into the power vacuum may ultimately be fundamentalist in nature and the enemy will be the United States.
It would be nice if this didn’t happen but there is nothing in Egypt’s history to indicate that they can evolve to this level. It’s not the Egyptian people. It’s a combination of their experience and the USA’s penchant for supporting oppressive dictatorships.
No, no matter what happens, No More Will A Prince Come Out OF Egypt, certainly not seeking true democracy.